SPY After FOMC Rate Hold β€” 18-Year What-If

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πŸ“Š Forward Returns After an FOMC Rate Hold Average Β· Median Β· Min / Max range Β· Win rate
Return Distribution by Horizon
Min β†’ Max range
Average
Median
Alva
Win Rate by Horizon
Win rate
50% line
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🧭 Hold vs Hike vs Cut β€” Does Direction Matter? Same SPY, same horizon, three decision cohorts Β· scheduled meetings only (emergency actions excluded)
Mean forward return by decision type
Hold
Hike
Cut
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Positive-return share by decision type
Hold
Hike
Cut
50% line
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πŸ•°οΈ Hold-by-Hold, Across 18 Years Each dot = one hold day Β· 1-month forward return
1-Month SPY Return After Each Hold, 2008 β†’ 2026
Positive 1M return
Negative 1M return
0% reference
ZIRP era
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πŸ“‹ Every Rate-Hold Decision Forward returns per horizon
One row per FOMC hold Β· sorted oldest β†’ newest
πŸ“š Methodology & References

Trigger definition

Every scheduled FOMC meeting since 2008-06-25 where the post-meeting statement keeps the target federal funds rate unchanged from the prior meeting. Emergency inter-meeting actions and rate-change decisions (hikes / cuts) are excluded.

Forward returns

For each hold event, the forward return at horizon H is (closet+H / closet) βˆ’ 1, where H is in trading days: 1W=5, 1M=21, 3M=63, 6M=126, 1Y=252. Entry price is the close of the decision date (or next trading day if the decision date is non-trading). Recent events without full forward data are excluded from the affected horizon only.

Scope

This page reports only the FOMC-hold cohort's own statistics β€” no random-date baseline is computed. It presents average return, median, win rate, and return range at each horizon, plus every per-event row.

Data sources

  • SPY daily OHLCV β€” Alva SDK @arrays/data/stock/spot/ohlcv:v1.0.0 via getStockKline.
  • Hold event list β€” curated from federalreserve.gov press releases; 49 events spanning 2008-06-25 to 2026-03-19.
  • All charts / metrics / tables read live from the Alva gateway via /api/v1/fs/read.

Caveats

  • Not a forecast. This is a historical observation of what happened on the specific 49 hold days in the sample window. It is not a recommendation, not a statement about the April 2026 decision, and not a probabilistic claim about any future meeting.
  • Regime mix. The 49 holds span ZIRP (2008–2015), liftoff pauses (2016, 2019), the pandemic era, and the post-2022 tightening plateau. Different macro regimes carry different expected returns; readers can re-slice the event table by date to isolate a regime if they prefer.
  • Survivorship. SPY tracks the S&P 500 index, which embeds index-level survivorship bias. Results are for SPY itself, not for any strategy applied to individual names.
  • Secular drift. The window coincides with a predominantly rising US equity market. Positive averages do not imply that a hold causes the subsequent return β€” only that SPY generally rose in this window.