Fear & Greed Buy Signal

The Question
"Be greedy when others are fearful" — Warren Buffett's most quoted advice. But what does "fearful" actually look like in the data? When the VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge — spikes above 35, it means option traders are pricing in extreme uncertainty. That's measurable fear. This playbook tests what happened every time you bought SPY at peak panic, across 349 extreme-fear days since 1993.
Last Updated: — Updates Daily SPY · VIX
BACKTEST RESULT
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Alva
Average Forward Return by VIX Threshold
Where We Are Now
Methodology
Data source: CBOE VIX Index and SPY daily prices since 1993 via Alva SDK. Extreme fear = VIX closing above 35. Forward returns measured from the signal date. Events within 5 trading days of each other are clustered (only the first signal is counted). 349 extreme-fear days identified. Updated daily. Limitations: VIX above 50 has only occurred a handful of times — results at that threshold have very limited statistical significance. Forward returns assume buy-and-hold from signal date. Does not account for transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.